Humanitarian Supply Chain – Syria Evacuation (CIV and MIL Supply Chains)

CASE STUDY CONCEPT: Mission Planning Under Conditions of Stress and Uncertainty. We live in a world where joint military and civilian humanitarian missions are called for with increasing frequency. Working through this case will give you deeper insights into the logistics required to support humanitarian and military operations.

Situation Report — There is suddenly an opportunity to end the fighting in Syria. The UN Security Council has approved the Munich Security Conference recommendation previously endorsed by the 17-nation International Syria Support Group. A Chapter VII Peace Enforcement mission is authorized with participant nations committing Peace Keeping (PK) forces as part of the approved UN Peace Support Operation (PSO).

You are in charge of logistics for the first phase of this mission. This first phase is expected to start immediately and last up to 120 days. It’s purpose is to get the mission underway and provide time for longer-term solutions to be put in place.

The video below presents a quick overview of this first 90 – 120 days of the mission. It shows how to use the 5-step Mission & Operations Planning (M&OP) process combined with supply chain simulations to create the supply chain plans you need to support this mission.

[NOTE: This is an advanced case. Work through the three online challenges of the beginning case, “Cincinnati Seasonings” before working with this case.]

PHASE ONE — The First 30 Days

Mobilization of aforementioned PK units is expected to take 90 to 120 days, therefore President of the United States (POTUS) has directed Secretary of Defense (SECDEF), in concert with Secretary of State (SECSTATE), to map out requirements to:

• Begin de-escalation of combat operations within specified corridors of the contested areas within Syria to allow safe migration of refugees;
• Allow for safe passage and transit of NGO (Non-Governmental Organizations) and medical support as part of Humanitarian efforts within contested zones;
• Set up ‘safe haven’ areas for up to 500,000 refugees to be housed, clothed, fed and medically supported in a secure environment; and
• Act as advance logistics support force for the pending arrival of the UN Chapter VII PSO. The mission has been assigned code name “Inherent Rescue”.

The SECDEF has ordered the Commander, US Central Command (COMCENTCOM) to immediately begin planning and implementation of the POTUS directive.  Initial forces are to be enroute to the revised CENTCOM Area of Responsibility (AOR) within 48 hours. Forces will operate under the command structure of Joint Task Force 51 (JTF-51)

Designated CENTCOM mission commander for JTF-51 has put together mission orders for Inherent Rescue. They are presented in the two concept of operations (CONOPS) diagrams shown below. Now it’s your job to create the logistics plans that will support this CONOPS.

(click for larger image)

The diagram above shows where the mission facilities will be located and the functions each facility will support. The diagram below shows the personnel that will be stationed at each facility to carry out the functions assigned to each facility.

(click for larger image)

CREATING THE MISSION LOGISTICS PLAN

You might feel completely overwhelmed at the size of the task, and all the complexity, and the seemingly impossible challenge of being ready to go in 48 hours. But nobody wants to hear your excuses… so you have to do something.

 (click screenshot for larger image)

You decide to use an approach that combines a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS), cloud-based modeling and simulation application with a concise five-step Mission and Operations Planning (M&OP) process as described in the video above. You use the resulting capability to explore options and make good decisions in a timely manner.

You go with the best plan you can devise with the time and information available. Then you implement that plan and continue to monitor the situation, and explore new options as the situation unfolds. You continue to update your operating plan as needed.

 (click screenshot for larger image)

It’s a far better thing to make good decisions in a timely manner (when it really counts), rather than trying to make perfect decisions later (when it’s too late anyway).

Intelligence Preparation of Supply the Chain (IPSC)

This case illustrates a repeatable and scalable best practice for planning and operating supply chains under conditions of stress and uncertainty. The practice is called Intelligence Preparation of the Supply Chain (IPSC), and it borrows techniques from the military best practice known as Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB). Intelligence Preparation of the Supply Chain is designed to:

IPSC employs a 5-step process shown below to organize and structure the work of creating mission logistics plans. And it uses supply chain simulations to quickly do the thousands of calculations to reconcile the daily demand plans and the daily supply plans. This enables creation, implementation and monitoring of continuously updated mission logistics plans as the mission progresses.

Mission and Operations Planning (M&OP) is a concise planning process based on Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) used in commercial supply chains. The diagram below illustrates the five steps of the M&OP process. Steps 1,2 and 3 create the supply chain model for this mission. Then Steps 4 and 5 use simulations to reconcile the supply plan with the demand plan and create a supply chain operating plan that meets the needs of the mission.

The five-step M&OP process is summarized in a short presentation shown below:

Download planning worksheets from the SlideShare presentation below. They provide M&OP Demand and Supply Planning Templates and the forms you need for the 5-step M&OP process. Sample data shown in the templates is from this Syria evacuation scenario.

YOUR FIRST CHALLENGE 

After watching the video and reading the report, get started with this case study by loading the “Operation Inherent Rescue – Syria Evacuation” supply chain into your account from the online library. When you open this supply chain model in the Edit screen you will see that it is actually composed of two supply chains. One is a civilian supply chain to support the refugees, and the other is a military supply chain to support the troops who protect the humanitarian operation.

The initial supply chain you load from the library already has a first set of numbers loaded in it. These numbers were calculated using the M&OP process. This model will run for five days and then problems start to happen. You need to respond to those problems and figure out how to get this supply chain to run for 15 days. Do what you feel you need to do, but also try to manage operating costs and inventory levels as best you can. These kind of joint military-civilian humanitarian missions are expensive. And demand for such missions is increasing. There are useful ideas to be found in the section “Reducing Inventory and Operating Costs”

Do what you need to do to get the supply chain to run for 15+ days. Download the resulting simulation data and import it into the Mission Reporting Template shown below. Use the Mission Costs and KPI report plus the dashboard in the template to find areas where you can make improvements to your supply chain model. Make improvements in those areas and run the simulation again. Then import the simulation data into the Mission Reporting Template again and see what it shows you. Make more improvements.

When you have questions about how to work with this case, the answer is always to ask yourself, “What would I do if this were the real world and I was the person in charge?” Model and simulate different possible ideas. Make plausible assumptions, then add/change/delete products, facilities, vehicles and routes as called for to model your ideas. Simulations show how well they work. Pick the best ones.

After several iterations you will have an efficient supply chain model that simulations show will be able to handle the situation over the next couple of weeks. The supply chain model is the logistics plan — it shows how to organize the products, facilities, vehicles and routes. It shows which facilities will deliver what products to other facilities, and it shows the vehicles to be used, and the routes and product delivery amounts and frequencies required.

MISSION REPORTING TEMPLATE — There is reporting template with an operations report and a performance dashboard for analyzing your simulation data. The template is built for a 15-day period. You can import your simulation data after trimming it for 15 days (scroll down to bottom of Analyzing Simulation Data). The operations report shows facility and product detail, and the dashboard shows where the best opportunities are for improvement. You can download a copy of the mission reporting template here.

The reporting template is set up for the Nepal Earthquake DR supply chain, but look at how the reports read the product and simulation data – you will see how to change the spreadsheet as needed to accommodate this case study.

[ We are glad to provide a free evaluation account to instructors, students and supply chain professionals interested in exploring SCM Globe simulations — click here to request an account — Get Your Free Trial Demo ]

PRESENT YOUR LOGISTICS PLAN — Once you have a supply chain model that runs for 15 days, and after you have taken actions to reduce operating costs and inventory levels, put together a briefing for the commander of JTF-51. Include the following in your brief:

• CONOPS showing operating facilities to be used and personnel located at each facility
• Demand Plan based on CONOPS showing demand for different categories of products at each facility
• Supply Plan showing vehicles and routes to deliver products to facilities to meet demand
• Supply Chain Model showing location of products, facilities, vehicles and routes on a map and specifications for each of these entities
• Supply Chain Operating Plan based on the supply chain model – it specifies facilities, vehicles and routes plus delivery frequencies and amounts
• Simulation Results with operating costs and inventory levels at each facility over the first 15 days – this is your baseline for tracking plan vs actual performance

[NOTE: Sometimes there is a bug in displaying route distances and travel times. For new routes, distances and times always show ROUND-TRIP, but for existing routes they may show ONE-WAY. This is a display problem only. Distances and times used in the simulations for new and existing routes are always ROUND-TRIP so simulation results are accurate.]

PHASE TWO — The Next 30 Days

The initial surge of troops and humanitarian aid workers into the conflict zone has gone well. Your timely and pragmatic logistics planning supported all that activity, and you are a big part of making the mission successful (so far). People have noticed. Congratulations.

Now they want you to do it again. After a busy month and much diplomacy, a decision has been made to evacuate 200,000 of the refugees to facilities on the island of Cyprus, as shown in the screenshot below. One facility is the British RAF base at Akrotiri, and the other is the city of Famagusta on the Turkish side of the island. Assume 50,000 refugees will go to Akrotiri, 150,000 will go to Famagusta, and 300,000 refugees will remain in the Homs safe haven in Syria. You need to start planning for this new operation right away.

 (click on screenshot for larger image)

You just had a meeting with the mission commander, and you sketched out the supply chain model shown in the screenshot above. The commander looked at it, asked a few questions, and said yes let’s go with it. So that’s the new CONOPS. However, when you left the meeting there was still some ambiguity about how the commander wants to redeploy troops to protect this operation, and how the humanitarian personnel will be reassigned to new facilities. But what else is new? It’s part of the job. You make assumptions and recommendations about those things in your logistics plan to support the mission.

You know the commander will not ask for additional troops. Since there are now fewer facilities to protect, word has it the commander is looking to reduce overall troop levels. Refugees are concentrated in the safe haven, and there are no longer any transit camps north of Hama. But because the number of refugees has not changed, there is no expectation that the number of aid workers will be reduced even though they will be in fewer facilities. The civilian medical facility and the military operating base at Hama will be maintained but at a reduced level of activity. In this operation 200,000 refugees will be transported on the roads and railroad line from Homs to Tartus Port as shown in the screenshot below.

Since the transit camps in Aleppo, Idlib and Marat Numan will be closed, the three military forward operating bases (FOBs) to protect those camps are no longer needed. There will be an FOB just outside of Homs (circled in orange in the screenshot above) to provide protection for the safe haven. And the commander thinks there needs to be one other FOB between Homs and Tartus Port to watch over and protect the routes for transporting refugees. Where do you think that FOB should be located?

HINT: A famous castle called Krak des Chevaliers was built in this area some 900 years ago to watch over transportation routes through the mountain passes between Homs and the Syrian coast. The modern roads and rail line still use those same mountain passes. Perhaps a location nearby on high ground overlooking the main road and rail line would be a good place for a new FOB. What modes of transportation will you use to keep the FOBs supplied? Why?

Krak_des_Chevaliers_landscape.jpg: (Ergo)derivative work: Nev1 / CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)

In Tartus Port there will be a transit facility where people may stay for up to two or three days for processing and waiting to board passenger ships that will take them to Akrotiri or Famagusta. The British military will handle security at Akrotiri, and the Turkish military will handle security in Famagusta. So there is no need to redeploy troops to those facilities. The fact that troops will be concentrated in fewer locations should enable a reduction in overall inventory, transportation and operating costs even if total troop strength is not greatly reduced. The commander wants you to find opportunities to, “do more with less.”

YOUR SECOND CHALLENGE 

There is a lot going on here and a lot of information to be collected and calculated for your logistics plan. Use the M&OP process to organize your activity and guide you through the work involved here. Create initial definitions for products, facilities, vehicles and routes based on M&OP research and calculations for these entities. Make your best assessment, document your assumptions, and move on.

Then do your demand plan, and use that to create your supply plan. Use the data from those plans to define the products, facilities, vehicles and routes that make up the supply chain to support this new phase. Run simulations and find where the problems are; adjust your plans to fix those problems. Simulate a few different supply chain designs and pick the best one… You know the drill.

Oh, and by the way, the mission commander wants to see your new logistics plan in 48 hours. Are you up to it?

FIND USEFUL IDEAS in the online guide to expand and improve your supply chain model:

• See techniques for expanding this supply chain model in “Tips for Building Supply Chain Models”
• Reduce on-hand inventory and calculate optimum delivery amounts and schedules in “Cutting Inventory and Operating Costs“
• Make sure you are familiar with the techniques presented in “Analyzing Simulation Data“
• Use the 5-step M&OP process to organize your work and stay focused, see explanation above and in case study “Nepal Earthquake Disaster Response“

Working on this case will be challenging… but the skills and insights you develop here will be the same skills and insights you use to plan and manage logistics on a real mission.

PRESENT THE NEW LOGISTICS PLAN — Once you have a supply chain model that runs for 15 days, and after you have taken actions to reduce operating costs and inventory levels, put together a briefing for the commander of JTF-51. As you did the first time, include the following in your brief:

• CONOPS showing operating facilities to be used and personnel located at each facility
• Demand Plan based on CONOPS showing demand for different categories of products at each facility
• Supply Plan showing vehicles and routes to deliver products to facilities to meet demand
• Supply Chain Model showing location of products, facilities, vehicles and routes on map and specifications for each of these entities
• Supply Chain Operating Plan based on the supply chain model – it specifies facilities, vehicles and routes plus delivery frequencies and amounts
• Simulation Results showing operating costs and inventory levels at each facility over the first 15 days of the new operation – your baseline for tracking plan vs actual performance

NOTE: This is an ADVANCED LEVEL case study – work through a beginning level case such as Cincinnati Seasonings before attempting to work with this case.

CASE ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: We would like to thank Bill Morrissey, COL U.S. Army (Ret.) who created the CONOPS for this case. And he outlined the best practice called Intelligence Preparation of the Supply Chain (IPSC). We also want to thank Dr. Dennis Duke at Florida Institute of Technology, and former NAVAIR Research and Engineering Fellow for the U.S. Navy. He was instrumental in defining and testing the Mission and Operation Planning (M&OP) process presented in this case study.

SAVE BACKUP COPIES of your supply chain model from time to time as you make changes. Click “Save” button next to your model in Account Management screen. There is no “undo”, but if a change doesn’t work out, you can restore from a saved copy. And sometimes supply chain model files (json files) become damaged and they no longer work, so you want backup copies of your supply chain to restore from when that happens.

SHARE CHANGES AND IMPROVEMENTS to this model (.json file) with other SCM Globe users see “Download and Share Supply Chain Models”

Register on SCM Globe to gain access to this and all other case studies. Click the blue “Register” button on the Log In page (app.scmglobe.com) and buy a subscription (if you haven’t already) using a credit card or PayPal account. Then go to the SCM Globe library and click the “Import” button next to this case study. Scan the “Getting Started” section (if you haven’t already), and you are ready to go. To share your changes and improvements to this model with other SCM Globe users see “Download and Share Supply Chain Models”